Market Analysis – February
Winter is over, and the skin market has thawed along with it. CS.MONEY analysts have prepared a market report and forecast for you. Stock up on knowledge for a successful trade!
The AK-47 | Redline is the only skin to show resilience and remain in the top 3 since January, while 1st and 3rd spots are taken by the well-known AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) and M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) that were close to the top3 but didn’t quite make it back then.
Last month we had a couple of variations of AWP Gungnir show significant price growth. Now they’ve pretty much stabilized, in February we have AUG | Flame Jörmungandr make huge moves. With both these skins being part of the Norse collection, this is hardly a coincidence, so take a closer look at other good-looking items from this collection.
Prices are generally increasing across all markets due to influx of new players and resurgence of interest in the game from all communities, so there’s no sell-off on the horizon for any items. However, ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) and Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) did lose 6.5% and 8% in their value respectively compared to January.
The Shattered Web stickers are breaking all kinds of records in terms of volume both on CS.MONEY marketplace and in Steam as well. We’ll discuss it below.
A sticker we’ve mentioned last week has almost doubled in price – Sticker | electronic (Foil) | London 2018 is the one we’re talking about. Electronic and Na’Vi are at the center of everyone’s attention right now, that has to explain this price movement. On the other hand – a couple of other stickers spiked in price due to their sheer rarity: Sticker | EliGE (Foil) | Cologne 2016 and Sticker | adreN (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 are in quite a low supply at this point.
February overview and our forecast
The beginning of March is expected to be the end of Operation Shattered Web, and traders are actively seeking for the correct entry and exit points for their trading strategy. Shattered Web cases are bought in hundreds ahead of the expected price movement, and it won’t only concern the cases, but, naturally, a great nubmer of skins and items as well.
Is it too early to speak about the bubble on the market for these cases blowing up? Perhaps, it’s not if Valve decides not to exclude them from the drop rotation. In this case, the price may not recover for a while. There is ,however, a chance that Valve will put a lid on the drop of these cases, making them a sought-after item in the long term, and we’ll see the price soar sooner or later. It’s difficult to predict Valve’s decision in this situation, but if Operation Hydra is anything to judge it by, the case drop will be halted soon. Hydra was, however, deemed not very successful and popular, so that may have been the reason behind Valve putting it to rest.
So what to do now? If you missed your chance to exit at the all-time-high with 40-50% profit, then this opportunity is gone, but another price spike is still on the cards, and it’ll coincide with the moment when valve decides the fate of the Shattered Web case.
At any rate, if you’re not being greedy, feel free to sell some of your cases now, and keep the rest for the future, depending on your strategy and plans you may have a good sale opportunity in the mid/long term.
If anyone is wondering about Shattered Web stickers, then take a close look at the official page of the operation.
It’s clearly stated that the stickers will “only” be available as a reward during the operation, so they’re going to be limited in supply and relatively rare. “Relatively” is the key word here, because the volumes in which these stickers are traded are very high, and there’s no telling when exactly their growth will start being driven by organic demand. It could be month, even years in the worst-case scenario.
Good luck with your trading!