In the latest update Valve introduced a trade ban on the keys. Predictably, key prices rose immediately. But how can this affect the skin market?
To understand the importance of this event, it is worth considering that for a long time the keys were the universal market currency in which it was customary to evaluate all items. Throughout the entire life cycle of the game, keys were stable in price, while the market value of items in dollars or euros could greatly vary. This ensured the constant liquidity of the keys.
How did the market react to the changes?
The market began to buy keys at extremely high prices. These keys were bought and sold not by ordinary users, but by the free lunch lovers who planned to resell future rarities at a higher price. However, this trick has not been working for a long time and after a sharp growth, the price crash began, similarly to the situation when Zeus stickers rushed up after the news about the player leaving the professional scene.
What to expect?
Such precedents have not been in the history of trading on Steam since the introduction of the seven-day ban. The market will be rebuilt. A similar situation was with the famous Howl skin, which became very rare after its redesign. However, the skin did not have such an effect on the market as a whole, and therefore the current situation can be called unique.
Possible development scenarios:
- Reorganization of the market. There are still a lot of keys on the marketplace. Most likely, their turnover will not decrease, since the keys remaining on the marketplace are a speculative tool. No one will buy them to open cases. Probably, the price of most keys will stop in the corridor from $2.99 to $3.15, after which the skins will be re-evaluated. For example, AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) is priced at 5 keys, while the old key price is $2.5. 2.5*5 = $12.5. Now the key price is $3.15 (we take the maximum value) 12.5/3.15 = 4 keys (round to the nearest integer), this is the new price of the skin.
- Another way is the market growth of 25-30%. Consider the same AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested). 5 keys = $3.15. 5 * 3.15 = $15.75 new AK price. Price increased by 26%.
- The emergence of new tools. There is an opinion in the trading community that the Team Fortress 2 keys will replace the CS:GO keys. They have a stable price on the market (around $2.5), and can still be bought, exchanged and sold. It is important to consider that TF2 is not a very popular game, and therefore the keys from this game are not so liquid. In addition, not all exchange sites accept items from this game. The liquidity of CS:GO keys is the main reason why they have become an important currency.
We advise you to wait a month and not take risks while the market is in an unstable state.